The United States and Republic of Korea have been allies since the Korean War in the 1950s, an intense war at the border of communism and capitalism. South Korea has exchanged political, economic and social influences with the United States. The impending presidential election in South Korea on March 9 should be closely watched by Americans because it will significantly affect U.S. policy.
It will be the first election in recent memory in South Korea where the ruling and opposition camps’ foreign policies actually differ from one another, in addition to their usual disagreements over North Korea. This time, there is also disagreement between the two sides over crucial alliance issues, issues related to energy and climate change, interactions with China, and whether South Korea should seek membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (also known as the Quad), which is made up of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.
This means that the outcome of the March election between Lee Jae-myung, a former governor of one of Korea’s provinces and candidate from the ruling progressive Democratic Party, and Yoon Seok-youl, a former prosecutor general and attorney representing the opposition conservative People Power Party, will have an impact on the Indo-Pacific region.
In South Korea, opinions toward North Korea primarily define the categories “progressive” and “conservative,” and policies toward North Korea are likely to resemble prior progressive and conservative administrations in Seoul. Progressives, such as the current president of South Korea Moon Jae-in, support dialogue with the North and view Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons development as a sign of the regime’s vulnerability and political exile.
Other foreign policy and alliance issues, like whether to resume joint military drills with the United States, are where the parties are breaking new ground. Following his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore in 2018, then-U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally halted these exercises. The candidate for the progressive ruling party hasn’t explicitly stated that such exercises will resume, which could be an effort to avoid inciting North Korean hostility. The candidate from the conservative party has shown more receptivity to the idea. This is significant for the US because it lowers the readiness of US and South Korean forces, which might damage the credibility of deterrence on the peninsula and encourage North Korea to make a mistake.
The handover of operational command power to South Korea during times of war is another problem. The so-called “OPCON transfer” would see South Korea take command of a war against North Korea instead of the United States, demonstrating South Korea’s development into one of the best militaries in the world at the moment. The United States wants to make sure that its ally satisfies the essential operational standards and circumstances to complete the transfer, even while it agrees in principle to completing the OPCON transfer promptly. The progressive party in power favors an early transfer, but doing so without sufficient planning could jeopardize the coalition.
The environment and energy are a third topic. Following the Fukushima tragedy in 2011, the ruling party has supported a phase-out of South Korea’s civil nuclear energy industry, whereas the opposition has criticized the present government’s plan. For nations like South Korea to achieve their carbon-zero targets by 2050, nuclear energy will be essential. Prior to the policies of the Moon administration, South Korea was quickly becoming one of the major nuclear energy players, selling a significant number of reactors to the United Arab Emirates. If the opposition candidate is elected and the nuclear phase-out is reversed, the nation might once again play a significant role. With allies like South Korea influencing the safety and security standards for the worldwide civil nuclear energy market, the United States is substantially better off.
Works Cited:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/26/south-korea-presidential-election-candidates-biden-administration/
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