With the 2024 presidential election just around the corner, it feels like new polling data is popping up every day. Early on, these polls showed a range of possibilities, but now they’re mainly zeroing in on the matchup between the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, and the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris picked up some early support in the polls after stepping in for President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. Still, the race is super tight, and with the margin of error in most polls, either candidate could pull off a win. This is especially true in crucial battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Recent history has shown that polls can be way off. For example, on Election Day 2016, HuffPost’s polling suggested Hillary Clinton had a 98% chance of winning against Trump. While those polls missed the mark, most of the polling during the 2020 election cycle accurately predicted that Joe Biden would beat Trump. So, with polling results swinging both ways, how much faith should people really have in these numbers?
How are political polls conducted?
Polls are used because asking every single person in a community would be too expensive and complicated, according to a report from CalTech. But interestingly, a sample size of just 1,000 to 1,500 people can provide a pretty accurate estimate of national opinion in the U.S.
One common polling method is random sampling, where pollsters select participants from computer-generated lists of landline and cell phone numbers (and more recently, online). This approach ensures that everyone in the population has an equal chance of being included. For a poll to be effective, it needs to represent a small version of the group being surveyed, as noted by Anthony Salvanto, the director of elections and polling at CBS News.
Different polling organizations have their own unique methods for conducting surveys, according to the Pew Research Center in 2020. They pointed out that CNN and Fox News prefer phone interviews, while CBS News, Politico, and The Associated Press utilize various online methods. Political analyst Floyd Ciruli mentioned to Rocky Mountain PBS that the most effective polls involve surveying people who join a panel, like online panel polls. He explained that these panel polls can have around a thousand participants in each state who regularly provide feedback, often through online platforms. Online polls also allow pollsters to focus on specific metrics more easily than traditional phone surveys.
With each election cycle, polling methods evolve, and 2024 is no exception. The New York Times highlighted that since 2020, there have been “four basic kinds of changes” in polling practices. Many pollsters are now opting for “surveys taken by text or mail” rather than relying solely on phone calls, and they are also making “statistical adjustments to better represent underrepresented groups.” This election cycle has provided pollsters with new data, and the composition of polling teams has shifted as people come and go.
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